What can AGI do? I/O and Speed

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What can AGI do? I/O and Speed
Channel: Robert Miles
Published: 2017-10-17T10:20:35Z
Views: 82772
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Description

Suppose we make an algorithm that implements general intelligence as well as the brain. What could that system do?
It might have better input and output than a human, and probably could be run faster...

The Computerphile video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcdVC4e6EV4
The paper 'Concrete Problems in AI Safety': https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf

They're Made Out Of Meat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tScAyNaRdQ
The Slow Mo Guys' Channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/theslowmoguys

With thanks to my excellent Patreon supporters:
https://www.patreon.com/robertskmiles

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Transcript

hi a long time ago in computerphile we
introduced the stamp collector this
hypothetical super intelligence which
just has crazy extreme powers by magic
effectively it's a thought experiment
then we brought things back down to
earth and started looking at this paper
concrete problems in AI safety which
looks at how we can improve the safety
of current AI systems hopefully in a way
that will be applicable to future
general AI systems and super
intelligences so let's talk a little bit
about what I expect those AGI systems to
be like this is purely speculation of
course but here are some of my thoughts
about what kind of capabilities we might
expect from a human level AGI and some
of my intuitions about why it might not
stay human level for long so suppose we
figure out how to implement general
intelligence we have a system with that
magic ability that humans have to tackle
a wide variety of different cognitive
tasks and let's assume that it's not
just anthropomorphic it's not a direct
one-to-one emulation of a human brain
but it's a general intelligence it can
in principle learn to do any cognitive
task that a human can and let's assume
that it's more or less human level it
can do any cognitive task a human can
about as well as the best humans but
note that this assumption still makes
our AGI pretty stupid in a lot of
domains because humans are stupid in a
lot of domains if the AGI is only about
as good as the best humans at something
like mental arithmetic it can be
outperformed by a human with a
calculator right if an AGI that's about
as good as the best humans at chess
place the best human chess player it
should be pretty close but in practice
such an Ag I would just download and run
one of the existing freely available
chess programs that already far
outperforms humans and if it needs to do
mental arithmetic it should be able to
just use its own existing computing
hardware so let's revise our definitions
and say that our AGI can perform any
cognitive task as well as the best
humans or if our existing narrow AI
outperforms humans then the AG eyes
performance will be closer to what our
best narrow AI systems can do so that's
one way that a human level AGI almost
immediately becomes sort of superhuman
it can outperform humans at things their
computers already outperform humans at
does that really count though like is a
human with a calculator really an
arithmetic super intelligence kind of
it depends where you draw your
boundaries the human calculator system
is much better at arithmetic than any
human so it kind of counts and this
brings us to some of the other
advantages a human level AGI might get
pretty much free of charge because if
you imagine the human has a calculator
implant in their brain that lets them
just think of equations and the
solutions immediately pop into their
mind that feels a lot more super
intelligent and that's much closer to
what the AGI would be working with
because humans are at a big disadvantage
when it comes to interacting with other
systems they are made out of meat for
humans interacting with computers is
slow you have a number in your brain
it's some pattern of electrical signals
but to get that into the Machine your
brain has to send signals to some nerves
that pass it on to more nerves across
synapses that work by chemical diffusion
that then activates a muscle fibers that
start to accelerate some meat and you
have to send loads of these signals to
lots of different muscles to get the bit
of meat to land on the right button and
then that completes the circuit and the
process can go along at a reasonable
speed again but you've got to do that
for every digit getting data out of a
human brain and into another system is
glacially slow by software standards and
getting data in is pretty slow as well
you can't just experience a number it
has to be presented as a pattern of
light which excites some light-sensitive
cells in your eye that sends a signal to
your optic nerve which goes to your
brain which then does a load of
processing to figure out that you're
looking at a 3 or whatever you know it's
it's really low bandwidth
high latency the round-trip time
measured as the time it takes a human to
press a button as soon as they see a
light flash is about 200 milliseconds
1/5 of a second that is a long time in
software terms as any systems programmer
will tell you gamers will know this to
think about playing a game with 200
milliseconds of ping that's what your
brain is working with all the time so
getting rid of that lag and increasing
the bandwidth should make an AGI much
faster at a lot of tasks and much better
at integrating other software systems
into its thinking even if that AGI is
not actually smarter than a human in any
other way the other problem with our
input system is that we can only really
take in information in certain forms
text images sound we can't easily pass
most types of information there's way
too much information
the matrix which is why we make graphs
and charts and data visualizations you
have to convert the data into something
that can be passed by systems designed
for hunting and gathering our AGI might
not be limited in that way it might be
able to experience different kinds of
data much more directly without having
to first map it into an existing sensory
modality it would probably have
specialized systems for processing
images or sound but it wouldn't have to
convert every input into images or sound
and then back again before it could use
it it could just use the data imagine a
software developer who's about as smart
as the best human software developers
but they can perceive data directly
without having to convert it into
symbols and visually read it and they
don't have to type or manually navigate
the files they can write code as fast as
they can think even without being
smarter than a human the improvement to
i/o could make such an AGI add much more
effective than a human if it couldn't
download a chess program it might be
able to write its own pretty quickly
another advantage I want to talk about
is the sort of cognitive flexibility you
can get when you're made of software it
could allow an AGI much more control
over at the mines operation for example
as a human you have one auditory system
which pretty much means you can process
one stream of audio at once like you
can't really listen to two people saying
different things in each year basically
even if in principle is you have enough
insurgency or Howard to do it you can
shut your eyes to avoid being distracted
and that might make it easier but you
can't then say well I'm not using my
visual cortex right now so I'll have
those neurons process one of the audio
streams brains don't work that way but
an AGI might be able to do just that
diverting computational resources from
one task to another as needed increasing
its effectiveness it might even be
capable of superhuman multitasking by
splitting off simpler versions of itself
to handle large numbers of simple tasks
and this is all assuming that the core
general intelligence part of the AI
system operates at the same speed as a
human brain which might not be true I
mean named a cognitive task that
computers can do as well as humans but
the computers do it slower
not easy right the general trend is we
go from computers can't do this at all
to computers can do this much faster
than people not always but in general so
I wouldn't be surprised if that pattern
continues with AGI and being faster is
valuable in general intelligence imagine
your brain stayed exactly the same but
the world slowed down to one tenth or
one hundredth of speed once you got used
to controlling your body at that speed
you'd effectively be much more
intelligent since you could afford to
put lots of careful thought and planning
into everything you do when someone says
something to you in a conversation you'd
have time to think for a minute or two
about what the other person said
consider the different meanings they
might have intended you know decide on
what kind of thing you want to say write
a draft go through and check it make a
couple of different versions you don't
think about like how each one might be
interpreted by each of the people
present where it might take a
conversation next and so on
you'd seem way smarter and you'd
effectively be much smarter but your
brain hasn't changed at all the world
just slowed down so in a way speed is a
form of super intelligence and I'd
expect a GIS to get faster over time as
well the obvious way is if you make a
human speed AGI a year later there'll be
new faster computers to run it on and it
will get faster but you can also speed
it up by giving it more Hardware note
that it's not always the case that a
system can be sped up by running it on
multiple computers you can't get a baby
in less than nine months by hiring two
pregnant women
some algorithms inherently require a
large number of sequential steps each
step needs to use the output of the
previous step so there's no way to break
the problem down into parts that can be
given to different machines to work on
in parallel maybe a GI will turn out to
be one of those but I don't think so I'd
expect it to be parallelizable for two
reasons
firstly just about all of the current
state-of-the-art AI systems are they're
built on frameworks like tensorflow that
are designed from the ground up to
efficiently run these algorithms on
large numbers of processes if we find a
GI along the path we're currently going
down it'll almost certainly be a
parallelizable algorithm secondly we
know that general intelligence does not
inherently require a large number of
sequential steps because human brains
have general intelligence and brains
can't do large numbers of sequential
steps at least not quickly the fastest
in neuron can fire is around 200 times
and so that has to be the most
sequential steps we can consistently
execute in a second
anything your brain can do every second
must be doable in less than 200
sequential steps because otherwise
neurons simply aren't fast enough to do
it
so whenever the brain is doing something
computationally impressive quickly it
has to be because it's using extremely
large numbers of neurons working in
parallel we know it must be possible to
parallelize a general intelligence
algorithm because it's already been done
so given a GI more hardware and it
should run faster and you just know that
as soon as the system starts to exhibit
behavior that looks like general
intelligence people are going to want to
run that on as many processors as they
can get their hands on so everything
I've talked about in this video assumes
that we can't actually make an algorithm
that's truly smarter than a human but
just something that has faster i/o and
can be run faster and that's already
capable of some pretty impressive things
one question I often get is what can an
AGI really do if it's just a computer
but nobody hopefully the capabilities
I've talked about here give some
impression of the kind of things it
might be able to do but I intend to
elaborate on that in a later video
[Music]
thank you so much to my excellent
patreon supporters that's these people
in this video I'm especially thanking
for bricio Pazhani he's the one on the
left
I think anyway I've recently been
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considering it let me know your thoughts
in the YouTube comments thanks for
watching and I'll see you next time
the fastest in neuron can fire is ah I
gotta buy some real sound damping