transformative ai

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Transformative ai
transformative ai
Main Question: What is "transformative AI"? (edit question) (edit answer)
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Description

Transformative AI is "[...] AI that precipitates a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution."[1] The concept refers to the large effects of AI systems on our well-being, the global economy, state power, international security, etc. and not to specific capabilities that AI might have (unlike the related terms Superintelligent AI and Artificial General Intelligence).

Transformative AI is "[...] AI that precipitates a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution."[1] The concept refers to the large effects of AI systems on our well-being, the global economy, state power, international security, etc. and not to specific capabilities that AI might have (unlike the related terms Superintelligent AI and Artificial General Intelligence).

Holden Karnofsky gives a more detailed definition in another OpenPhil 2016 post:

[...] Transformative AI is anything that fits one or more of the following descriptions (emphasis original):

  • AI systems capable of fulfilling all the necessary functions of human scientists, unaided by humans, in developing another technology (or set of technologies) that ultimately becomes widely credited with being the most significant driver of a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution. Note that just because AI systems could accomplish such a thing unaided by humans doesn’t mean they would; it’s possible that human scientists would provide an important complement to such systems, and could make even faster progress working in tandem than such systems could achieve unaided. I emphasize the hypothetical possibility of AI systems conducting substantial unaided research to draw a clear distinction from the types of AI systems that exist today. I believe that AI systems capable of such broad contributions to the relevant research would likely dramatically accelerate it.
  • AI systems capable of performing tasks that currently (in 2016) account for the majority of full-time jobs worldwide, and/or over 50% of total world wages, unaided and for costs in the same range as what it would cost to employ humans. Aside from the fact that this would likely be sufficient for a major economic transformation relative to today, I also think that an AI with such broad abilities would likely be able to far surpass human abilities in a subset of domains, making it likely to meet one or more of the other criteria laid out here.
  • Surveillance, autonomous weapons, or other AI-centric technology that becomes sufficiently advanced to be the most significant driver of a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution. (This contrasts with the first point because it refers to transformative technology that is itself AI-centric, whereas the first point refers to AI used to speed research on some other transformative technology.)

Canonically answered

When will transformative AI be created?

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As is often said, it's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. This has not stopped many people thinking about when AI will transform the world, but all predictions should come with a warning that it's a hard domain to find anything like certainty.

This report for the Open Philanthropy Project is perhaps the most careful attempt so far (and generates these graphs, which peak at 2042), and there's been much discussion including this reply and analysis which argues that we likely need less compute than the OpenPhil report expects.

There have also been expert surveys, and many people have shared various thoughts. Berkeley AI professor Stuart Russell has given his best guess as “sometime in our children’s lifetimes”, and Ray Kurzweil (Futurist and Google’s director of engineering) predicts human level AI by 2029 and the singularity by 2045. The Metaculus question on publicly known AGI has a median of around 2029 (around 10 years sooner than it was before the GPT-3 AI showed unexpected ability on a broad range of tasks).

The consensus answer, if there was one, might be something like: “highly uncertain, maybe not for over a hundred years, maybe in less than 15, with around the middle of the century looking fairly plausible”.

What is "transformative AI"?

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Transformative AI is "[...] AI that precipitates a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution."[1] The concept refers to the large effects of AI systems on our well-being, the global economy, state power, international security, etc. and not to specific capabilities that AI might have (unlike the related terms Superintelligent AI and Artificial General Intelligence).

Holden Karnofsky gives a more detailed definition in another OpenPhil 2016 post:

[...] Transformative AI is anything that fits one or more of the following descriptions (emphasis original):

  • AI systems capable of fulfilling all the necessary functions of human scientists, unaided by humans, in developing another technology (or set of technologies) that ultimately becomes widely credited with being the most significant driver of a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution. Note that just because AI systems could accomplish such a thing unaided by humans doesn’t mean they would; it’s possible that human scientists would provide an important complement to such systems, and could make even faster progress working in tandem than such systems could achieve unaided. I emphasize the hypothetical possibility of AI systems conducting substantial unaided research to draw a clear distinction from the types of AI systems that exist today. I believe that AI systems capable of such broad contributions to the relevant research would likely dramatically accelerate it.
  • AI systems capable of performing tasks that currently (in 2016) account for the majority of full-time jobs worldwide, and/or over 50% of total world wages, unaided and for costs in the same range as what it would cost to employ humans. Aside from the fact that this would likely be sufficient for a major economic transformation relative to today, I also think that an AI with such broad abilities would likely be able to far surpass human abilities in a subset of domains, making it likely to meet one or more of the other criteria laid out here.
  • Surveillance, autonomous weapons, or other AI-centric technology that becomes sufficiently advanced to be the most significant driver of a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution. (This contrasts with the first point because it refers to transformative technology that is itself AI-centric, whereas the first point refers to AI used to speed research on some other transformative technology.)

Non-canonical answers

How long will it be until transformative AI is created?

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There have been surveys and opinion polls done. The most comprehensive one was done by The Future of Humanity Institute, where they surveyed 550 of the top experts in AI research. In this survey, when asked "which year do you think the chance of human level artificial intelligence reaches 50%", the mean response was 2081 and the median response was 2040.

What are the differences between AGI, transformative AI and superintelligence?

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AGI means an AI that is 'general', so it is intelligent in many different domains.

Superintelligence just means doing something better than a human. For example Stockfish or Deep Blue are narrowly superintelligent in playing chess.

TAI (transformative AI) doesn't have to be general. It means 'a system that changes the world in a significant way'. It's used to emphasize, that even non-general systems can have extreme world-changing consequences.

Unanswered canonical questions