Whilst this is posible, AI technologies seem to be progressing much faster than cognitive enhancement.
The future of the world will be dominated by these systems. We control the world because we're the most capable and coordinated entities on the planet.
We don't know yet. This sentiment has been influenced by the ebb and flow of new research, but the wind seems to be blowing in the direction of scaling being sufficient for AGI.
External opinions on this subject
- Gwern on scaling hypothesis
- Daniel Kokotajlo on what we could do with +12 OOMs of compute
- Rohin Shah on the likelihood of getting to AGI with current techniques
- Rich Sutton's "The Bitter Lesson" on why more computation beats leveraging existing human knowledge
- Gary Marcus on how LLMs are limited and how scaling will not help
- Evidence against current methods
Currently, private AI labs are greatly ahead of any known governmental efforts in the production of advanced AI, so it looks unlikely that a government will be involved directly in the creation of the first AGI.
Nevertheless, governments are important drivers of policies, so in order to avoid unaligned AGI, here are some suggestions that they can enact:
- Chose policies that slow down rather than speed up AGI development, such as not incentivizing AI capabilities research.
- Attempt to foster cooperation and reduce the number of players competing to create the first AGI in order to avoid race dynamics that lead to cut corners on safety.
- Generally foster a stable, peaceful, connected world. Also don't start wars!
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IF you are looking for a small action which will start things moving, you might consider: