These pages need work done on them. Ideally a comment outlining the requested change will be below the answer (or question).
Canonical answers may be served to readers by Stampy, so only answers which have a reasonably high stamp score should be marked as canonical. All canonical answers are open to be collaboratively edited and updated, and they should represent a consensus response (written from the Stampy Point Of View) to a question which is within Stampy's scope.
Answers to YouTube questions should not be marked as canonical, and will generally remain as they were when originally written since they have details which are specific to an idiosyncratic question. YouTube answers may be forked into wiki answers, in order to better respond to a particular question, in which case the YouTube question should have its canonical version field set to the new more widely useful question.
We don’t yet know which AI architectures are safe; learning more about this is one of the goals of FLI's grants program. AI researchers are generally very responsible people who want their work to better humanity. If there are certain AI designs that turn out to be unsafe, then AI researchers will want to know this so they can develop alternative AI systems.
It’s pretty dependent on what skills you have and what resources you have access to. The largest option is to pursue a career in AI Safety research. Another large option is to pursue a career in AI policy, which you might think is even more important than doing technical research.
Smaller options include donating money to relevant organizations, talking about AI Safety as a plausible career path to other people or considering the problem in your spare time.
It’s possible that your particular set of skills/resources are not suited to this problem. Unluckily, there are many more problems that are of similar levels of importance.
Try to avoid directly referencing the wording of the question in the answer, in order to make the answer more robust to alternate phrasings. For example, that question might be "Can we do X" and the reply is "Yes, if we can manage Y", but then the question might be "why can't we do X" or "What would happen if we tried to do X" so the answer should be like "We might be able to do X, if we can do Y", which works for all of those.
Current narrow systems are much more domain-specific than AGI. We don’t know what the first AGI will look like, some people think the GPT-3 architecture but scaled up a lot may get us there (GPT-3 is a giant prediction model which when trained on a vast amount of text seems to learn how to learn and do all sorts of crazy-impressive things, a related model can generate pictures from text), some people don’t think scaling this kind of model will get us all the way.
Very hard to say. This draft report for the Open Philanthropy Project is perhaps the most careful attempt so far (and generates these graphs), but there have also been expert surveys, and many people have shared various thoughts. Berkeley AI professor Stuart Russell has given his best guess as “sometime in our children’s lifetimes”, and Ray Kurzweil (Google’s director of engineering) predicts human level AI by 2029 and the singularity by 2045. The Metaculus question on publicly known AGI has a median of around 2029 (around 10 years sooner than it was before the GPT-3 AI showed unexpected ability on a broad range of tasks).
The consensus answer is something like: “highly uncertain, maybe not for over a hundred years, maybe in less than 15, with around the middle of the century looking fairly plausible”.
The Stamp Points System
If someone posts something good - something that shows insight, knowledge of AI Safety, etc. - give the message a stamp :stamp: of approval! @Stampy keeps track of these, and uses them to decide how much he likes each user. You can ask Stampy (in a PM if you like), "How many stamps am I worth?", and he'll tell you. If something is really very good, especially if it took a lot of work/effort, give it a gold stamp :goldstamp:. These are worth 5 regular stamps!
Note that stamps aren't just 'likes', so please don't give stamps to say "me too" or "that's funny" etc. They're meant to represent knowledge, understanding, good judgement, and contributing to the discord. You can use :100: or :heavy_check_mark: for things you agree with, :laughing: or :rofl: for funny things etc.
Your stamp points determine your voting power for approving YouTube replies, and in future probably other things, like getting invite links to share etc.
Notes on stamps and stamp points
- Stamps awarded by people with a lot of stamp points are worth more
- Awarding people stamps does not reduce your stamp points
- New users who have 0 stamp points can still award stamps, they just have no effect. But it's still worth doing because if you get stamp points later, all your previous votes are retroactively updated!
- Yes, this was kind of tricky to implement! Stampy actually stores how many stamps each user has awarded to every other user, and uses that to build a system of linear scalar equations which is then solved with numpy.
- When people post things that are insightful, that show good judgement or good knowledge of AI safety, you give them a :stamp:
- Each user has stamp points, and also gives a score to every other user they give stamps to the scores sum to 1 so if I give user A a stamp, my score for them will be 1.0, if I then give user B a stamp, my score for A is 0.5 and B is 0.5, if I give another to B, my score for A goes to 0.3333 and B to 0.66666 and so on
- Score is "what proportion of the stamps I've given have gone to this user"
- Everyone's stamp points is the sum of (every other user's score for them, times that user's stamp points) so the way to get points is to get stamps from people who have points
- Rob is the root of the tree, he got one point from stampy
- So the idea is the stamp power kind of flows through the network, giving people points for posting things that I thought were good, or posting things that "people who posted things I thought were good" thought were good, and so on ad infinitum so for posting youtube comments, stampy won't send the comment until it has enough stamps of approval. Which could be a small number of high-points users or a larger number of lower-points users
- Oh also, :goldstamp: is just equivalent to 5 stamps and stamps given to yourself or to stampy do nothing
So yeah everyone ends up with a number that basically represents what stampy thinks of them, and you can ask him "how many stamps am I worth?" to get that number
For technical details, see: https://discord.com/channels/677546901339504640/758062805810282526/781208566408413235