How doomed is humanity?

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Alternate Phrasings

  • Are we screwed?
  • What are our chances of surviving?

Canonical Answer

The opinions from experts are all over the place, according to this 2021 survey. Someone has also collected a database of existential risk estimates.

On the pessimistic end you find people like Eliezer Yudkowsky, who said: "I consider the present gameboard to look incredibly grim, and I don't actually see a way out through hard work alone. We can hope there's a miracle that violates some aspect of my background model, and we can try to prepare for that unknown miracle; preparing for an unknown miracle probably looks like "Trying to die with more dignity on the mainline" (because if you can die with more dignity on the mainline, you are better positioned to take advantage of a miracle if it occurs)."

While at the optimistic end you have people like Ben Garfinkel who put the probability at more like 0.1-1% for AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century, with most people lying somewhere in the middle.

Stamps: plex

Tags: doom, surveys (edit tags)

Canonical Question Info
(edits welcome)
Asked by: Sophiaaa
OriginWhere was this question originally asked
Wiki
Date: 2021/07/18


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