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Predictions about future AI
Timelines
When do experts think human-level AI will be created?
What evidence do experts usually base their timeline predictions on?
Are AI self-improvement projections extrapolating an exponential trend too far?
What are AI timelines?
Compute and scaling
Can we get AGI by scaling up architectures similar to current ones, or are we missing key insights?
What is compute?
What are scaling laws?
What is the "Bitter Lesson"?
How much computing power did evolution use to create the human brain?
Nature of AI
Why might people build AGI rather than better narrow AIs?
How can progress in non-agentic LLMs lead to capable AI agents?
How might things go wrong even without an agentic AI?
What are some tasks where AI exceeded human expectations?
Takeoff
What is "AI takeoff"?
What are the different possible AI takeoff speeds?
What are the differences between a singularity, an intelligence explosion, and a hard takeoff?
How quickly could an AI go from harmless to existentially dangerous?
How might we get from artificial general intelligence to a superintelligent system?
How long will it take to go from human-level AI to superintelligence?
Will there be a discontinuity in AI capabilities?
Why does AI takeoff speed matter?
Takeover
What is a “treacherous turn”?
Could a superintelligent AI use the internet to take over the physical world?
How might AI socially manipulate humans?
How might AGI kill people?
How likely is it that an AI would pretend to be a human to further its goals?
Why would we only get one chance to align a superintelligence?
What is an intelligence explosion?
Relative capabilities
How powerful would a superintelligence become?
Can an AI be smarter than humans?
Why would intelligence lead to power?
What could a superintelligent AI do, and what would be physically impossible even for it?
Would AI technology favor offense or defense in a conflict?
Good outcomes
What are the potential benefits of advanced AI?
If we solve alignment, are we sure of a good future?
What would a good future with AGI look like?
Catastrophic outcomes
What is a "warning shot"?
What is an “AGI fire alarm”?
How likely is extinction from superintelligent AI?
If we go extinct due to misaligned AI, at least nature will continue, right?
Are there any detailed example stories of what unaligned AGI would look like?

What are AI timelines?

1 min read

Suggest changes in Google Docs

In AI forecasting, the term "AI timelines" is used informally to refer to the predicted amount of time until AI reaches a particular milestone, such as artificial general intelligence or superintelligence. For example, people will sometimes ask "what are your timelines?" as shorthand for "how long do you think it will be until AI reaches [whatever the milestone in question is]?"

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Can we get AGI by scaling up architectures similar to current ones, or are we missing key insights?
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When do experts think human-level AI will be created?
What evidence do experts usually base their timeline predictions on?
Updated Jan 2025

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