How likely is it that governments will play a significant role? What role would be desirable, if any?

Currently, private AI labs are greatly ahead of any known governmental efforts to produce advanced AI, so it looks unlikely that a government will be involved directly in the creation of the first AGI.

Nevertheless, governments are important drivers of policies, so in order to avoid unaligned AGI, here are some suggestions that they can enact:

  • Choose policies that slow down rather than speed up AGI development, such as not incentivizing AI capabilities research.

  • Attempt to foster cooperation and reduce the number of players competing to create the first AGI in order to avoid race dynamics that lead to cut corners on safety.

  • Generally foster a stable, peaceful, connected world. Also don't start wars!